WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Friday that Russia will send more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States immediately and millions more in the coming months, following a phone call with Vladimir Putin, according to the Wall Street Journal. The deliveries would move under a Treasury general license that, through April 7, 2027, exempts deliveries of Russian diesel loaded onto tankers as of Friday from U.S. sanctions, the Associated Press and USA Today reported.
Key facts
- The announced sequence: more than 300,000 tons of diesel "immediately," another 500,000 tons in November, 1 million tons "immediately thereafter," and 3 million more "within a short period of time," the last tranche conditional on Russian refinery conditions, per the Associated Press and USA Today.
- Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license that, through April 7, 2027, exempts deliveries of Russian diesel loaded onto tankers as of Friday from U.S. sanctions, per the Associated Press and USA Today.
- Retail diesel averaged $6.23 a gallon Friday, according to AAA, after a record $6.52 on Sept. 22, per the Associated Press.
- The full 4.8 million tons amounts to roughly 36 million barrels, or about 400,000 barrels a day over three months, per MarketWatch.
- Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, said the initial 300,000 tons is roughly 2 million barrels against U.S. diesel exports of 1.5 million barrels a day: "It's a drop in the bucket," per Barron's.
- Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader and managing director at CIBC Private Wealth, said the barrels "could help, but they may not fully materialize, and what does arrive will likely still be too little, too late," per MarketWatch.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on X: "Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world," per MarketWatch.
- Former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul called the deal "absolutely deplorable," saying Trump is "providing Putin with new money to build more Russian rockets and drones to kill Ukrainians," per MarketWatch.
- The general license comes about three weeks after Trump signed a new Russia sanctions bill named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, per MarketWatch.
The deal
Trump announced the arrangement in a Truth Social post after the call. The Kremlin confirmed the deal, and Putin said he was "confident that this will have a positive impact on the global economy as a whole," USA Today reported. Russia has banned diesel exports since July, and the International Energy Agency says Russian diesel output has fallen about 30 percent amid Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian refineries — though Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said supplies to the U.S. could start in October, according to the AP.
The math
Start with Cinquegrana's framing: 300,000 tons is roughly 2 million barrels, arriving against American diesel exports of 1.5 million barrels a day. The 500,000-ton November tranche works out to about 3.7 million barrels, or 123,000 barrels a day — under a tenth of daily U.S. exports, per Barron's.
Babin's math puts the full 4.8 million tons at roughly 36 million barrels, or 400,000 barrels a day over three months. Her verdict: "too little, too late," with the smallest volumes arriving upfront, "when relief is needed most," she told USA Today. The futures market barely moved — ULSD futures fell 3 percent, per MarketWatch. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan sees a possible short-term dip of 10 to 20 cents a gallon but says Trump's import goals will be "difficult to achieve," USA Today reported. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates told the Journal: "It's unclear to me how much additional supplies the world is actually going to get."
The backlash
Zelenskyy said Russia would repay it "with further terror and perfidy" and cast the arrangement as an investment in the war, according to the AP. About three weeks ago, Trump signed a new Russia sanctions package into law. Treasury's general license, through April 7, 2027, exempts deliveries of Russian diesel loaded onto tankers as of Friday from U.S. sanctions, the AP and USA Today reported.
What it means for NWI
USA Today reported that high diesel prices present "major challenges to farmers in the Midwest." Trump's stated pitch names those workers directly: "Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority," he said, according to the Journal and the AP. Whether the Russian barrels move that number is the open question.
Photo credit
- Hero: Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at their joint press conference in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018, by Kremlin.ru, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.
- Inline: A fuel tanker truck in Beatty, Nevada, photographed in March 2009, by D'oh Boy (Mark Holloway), Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
- Inline: Diesel and motor-oil pump nozzles at a service-station fuel pump, by RicHard-59, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.